Risk Disclosure

1. You can lose money

Market making means standing ready to buy and sell. When someone trades against your quotes, you take on a position. That position can lose value, and in a prediction market it can go to zero when the market resolves. Only trade funds you can afford to lose.

2. Adverse selection

Traders with better or faster information may trade against your quotes just before prices move. This is the main cost of market making. Markout measures it, and the engine removes markets that stay negative, but it cannot prevent it.

3. Resolution risk

Markets resolve according to each venue's rules and resolution process. Rules can be ambiguous, outcomes can be disputed, and a market can resolve differently from what prices implied or what you expected. Positions bought at high probabilities can still resolve against you. Resolution-risk scoring reduces this exposure but does not eliminate it.

4. Venue risk

Venues are independent third parties. They can suffer outages, change fees, change or end reward and rebate programmes, restrict automated trading, suspend markets, freeze accounts, be hacked, or fail. Rewards that exist today may be reduced or removed without notice.

5. Automation and crowding risk

Venues can restrict or prohibit automated trading, or trading through third-party software, at any time, which can stop the engine without notice. When many accounts quote the same markets, they compete for the same fills and the same rewards. Celenbase varies quotes per account to reduce this, but it cannot remove it.

6. Blockchain and stablecoin risk

Venues run on public blockchains and settle in stablecoins. Smart-contract bugs, chain congestion, reorganisations, bridge failures and stablecoin de-pegging can all cause losses that no setting in Celenbase can prevent.

7. Software and connectivity risk

Celenbase is software and can contain errors. Latency, outages, data delays or bugs, in our systems or a venue's, can cause orders to be placed, filled or left resting in ways you did not intend. If the engine disconnects, orders already on a venue remain there until filled or cancelled.

8. News and event risk

The news kill-switch pulls quotes when it detects relevant headlines. It can miss news, react after informed traders, or pause markets unnecessarily. Some events move markets with no public headline at all.

9. Key and account risk

Anyone who obtains your venue login or keys may be able to trade in your account. Create keys with the narrowest permissions your venue allows, protect your accounts, and revoke keys you no longer use.

10. Legal and regulatory risk

Laws on prediction markets differ between countries and change often. A venue or the Service may become unavailable where you live. You are responsible for making sure your use is lawful.

11. Tax

Trading results and rewards may be taxable. Get advice from a qualified professional where you live.

12. Simulated results

Previews and charts on our website use simulated or illustrative data unless labelled as live. Simulated results have inherent limitations and are not a record of actual trading.

13. No advice

Nothing from Celenbase is investment, legal or tax advice. You decide whether to trade, where, and with which settings.